What Will December Bring? Does Arctic Air Loom? Or Will We Be Warm? Any Winter Storms?

Hey, what's going on everyone. This is Mitch hope you had a great thanksgiving. Hope, you're having a great holiday weekend so far as we're getting going with our Saturday.

I thought I'd make this video. Early I'll, be going to the gang cotton tigers game, uh tonight in Williams Bryce stadium here in Columbia, South Carolina. So I won't be able to make a video tonight, but we'll get back to our regular scheduled routine starting tomorrow.

But I just got back from the mountains before North Carolina was a. Good time and um excited to get into December with you guys and talk some winter weather. So what we're going to break down this video is really talk about what it's starting to look like as we get into December we're, obviously, close enough that we really can break down the first week and a half of December with a little of confidence, not a lot. But we can talk about some things there's been some. I wouldn't call it hype, but there's been some talk around the weather community about a big. Time cold front for next weekend. So we're going to talk about that potential talk about what the latest models are showing because it is different today than it was this time yesterday.

So it just tells you. This is ever-changing situation, there's a lot to figure out. So if you guys not subscribe hit the subscribe button like the video, if you like it, I do have a personal goal of mine to hit 10k by the end of the year, but I'll tell you guys we're going to have some, um, some big-time weather. Event, some big-time snowstorms and definitely has to get a lot more active, because obviously people aren't going to care too much about the weather if it's not directly affecting them. So I appreciate people who've continued to tune in even in the slow times, and I'm still going to hold true to that goal. And hope it works out. But if it doesn't, I'm very excited about 2022.

So thank you all for support and let's get rolling here. So we're going to start off by looking at the latest GFS, which is the. One that just came out in the latest euro, which is about to be finished running, but we'll be able to get the majority of it in this video. So we'll run through the entire run. Probably about 240 10 days out we'll run through 10 days after you get about 10 after you get about past day, 10, uh, you're, really just it's, just showing you stuff that, um, it's, probably not going to happen. So, um we're getting into the rest of the weekend. We have this clipper piece of energy it's, actually delivering snow right now.

To Michigan, uh, if you're a big time, football fan like watching snow games, Ohio state, Michigan is being played in snow right now. It's always exciting to see that kind of stuff. This time of the year it's kind of depressing that football, season will come to an end the regular season today.

Well, you got a few games like the army and navy game next weekend. So that's always exciting and America always loves to watch that game, but going forward here what we thought and potentially could be a big. Time coastal storm has since obviously turned it away from that, but watch southeast Canada.

And these areas over here in Canada, this could potentially be a big storm for you guys, um, and then another clipper rolls through. But we really start to warm up, and I'll talk temperatures here in a second, um into the end of the week is for a lot of the country. A lot of the eastern u.s. I mean, even the Midwest, even the Ohio valley as a jet stream, basically shifts pretty far north. And the pattern almost.

Goes zonal temporarily, which means there's, no big-time, ridges and there's, no big time, trough in cold fronts. But what happens next week is a big question mark. You have an impressive cold front that digs here as you get into our Sunday morning next Sunday morning. So this is over eight days out shows a pretty powerful system, riding the boundary of the cold front and just a wave of low pressure, which puts a pretty significant winter weather event for portions of the northern Ohio valley and areas of. The upper Midwest, but so far out it's hard to really takes serious, but the GFS actually has, um, I mean pretty close to, um, you have to watch for almost a severe weather event down here, uh, very downfall.

This thing would have to, you know, cut really far north, and we'll have to get a little more warm air moisture flow here. But anyway, um. This is the kind of the trough that everybody's talking about. Now, this is 10 days out the GFS has since pushed that cold front, pretty far out. And actually. Doesn't even have to have it existing through the first 10 days of December, it looks pretty warm.

Now it has a cold front at the very end of the run, but it's at the very end. So it doesn't really matter much. So the latest GFS really isn't showing that big cold front for the first weekend of December. You look at the latest European model about that, and we're seeing pieces of energy fly by the same pieces of energy that was showing on the GFS, except it's a lot more robust with this piece of. Energy late this week, um, we get into next weekend.

And here comes that cold, front it's, still digging a little more south than the um GFS, but it's still trending away from a big time. Trough, even some local meteorologists here in the southeast have been mentioning it because social media has been chattering about it about these crazy runs that the GFS are showing, and I'll show you what they've been showing, but keep in mind it's, not the latest updated information, it's, not the latest updated. Models it's trending away from a big time, cold scenario for next week, weekend and next week, um, not this coming week. But next week after that, the first full week of December, um, which is kind of lines up to what we previously thought about the first week of, um, the first little part of December so kudos to you, if you stay true to the first part of December being above average, which is kind of what we were thinking several days ago.

But this is what the run last night. The last night, the 18z run show. For the GFS you'll see how much different it is as we're getting to the end of the week. You see how close these, um, this, five, forty-five, thirty, four, five. Twenty-eight lines are that basically tells us it's a big time cold front digging down. This thing pretty much goes from northwest to southeast oriented.

And it moves down, um gets into the southeast gets into the eastern U.S. by the weekend, um and Sunday morning. You have a decent event, a decent weather system showing up to keep in mind. This is.200 hours out and uh, cold air is really digging down. And then it gets reinforced. A little later in the run as you get into the December 6, December 7th range.

And then you know piece of energy tries to run over that cold air. And you have a storm system, but that's 300 hours out you look at the European from 24 hours ago, and it's much different from the European. Now here it goes you're, getting all the way into our late this week getting into this coming weekend. And it has a big time cold front. Working all the way south pretty quickly and produces a big time. Winter. Weather event, went big time, winter, storm as far south as Tennessee and uh, you know, wrecks have havoc four areas of the interior northeast.

And this continues to march for develops, a low pressure. And you have intense snow it's, pretty much an almost a mini northeastern or a nor'Easter. You can call it whatever, but it's 200 hours out.

And the models have since changed. And then it delivers. A pretty impressive shot of cold air for. The southeast so models are changing and here's. The reason they're changing I'll stop this.

Um I'll, stop this at 186 hours out. And this is the current gets. It shows the gets ensembles. So this is right around where the models yesterday and overnight yesterday were showing a bit of big time, cold front since then I'm gonna every time I push this arrow down button. It goes to the model previous to the two the one I showed you before. So basically I'm going to go back like four or five runs and watch.

How this blue area, um, kind of goes back west and situates itself more over the eastern u.s. So this is the one over. This was the one this morning. This was the one overnight. This was the evening run yesterday.

This was the lunchtime run yesterday. And this was the morning time run yesterday. So I'm going to fast-forward to the present run bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, bang. So it's, trended away. And now you have the ridge and that pacific air is starting to flex a little into the eastern u.s. And the. Southeast and you know, eventually it pretty much makes its way there, and it shows a big-time ridge over the entire central and eastern U.S., according to the latest GFS. And you know, maybe later in the run, it gets better.

But I mean through the entire run on the latest gets, this takes you all the way through mid-December, um it's, a pretty crappy pattern for any kind of winter weather lovers and just winter weather in general. So we'll, look at the latest. Let me see make sure this is the latest, um. Okay. So this was the 18z from last night now, check it out as far as temperatures.

You can really see the sharp cold front digging here. This is highs next Saturday according to the GFS run from this from yesterday evening shows 70s almost in the 80s in Florida. But look at this sharp cut off. This is what the cold front is sitting Saturday afternoon. And then it makes its way Sunday afternoon.

So if something like this was to happen, you'll have 70 degrees, 70 low 70s for highs Saturday. And then only the 40s. For highs for Sunday of next weekend, but I don't think that's going to happen it's trending away from it and then freezing air moves through.

And then it gets reinforced by real true arctic air. As you get into the December 6, 7 time frame since then you look at the latest run, and we'll get to that same time period right here. And here comes that same cold front that was kind of showing up, but look at it.

It just the southeast ridge kind of flexes here and the cold front never really digs. It. Starts digging right here, um, but it's, not it basically stalls out, and it basically weakens stalls out, whatever it may be heck. We don't know, the details as far out. Now you see some freezing air here in the upper Midwest.

But really the run is significantly more runner than more runner. Warmer than the run. Three runs prior. Um. Same thing with here.

Let's see if we can make this a little bigger, same thing with this, you know, you're going through here. This was the 12z euro yesterday, it's. Yesterday, one not today's run.

And here it is here comes the arctic air. Mass. Look, how warm it is on Thursday, this coming Thursday according to this euro run.

And then this is Friday look at the cold air dropping. This is Saturday. And this is where that big cold front is. And this is sunday, high temperatures across the eastern U.S., and then, uh, the cold front. The coal keeps coming at the end of the run. The latest run you take it all the way to that same time, period and uh, yeah. I mean.

It sinks some cold air in here and let's see if we can get the updated information, it seems it sinks some cold air in here, um at the very end of the run, but it's delayed it's, not necessarily warmer on the European, but it's much more delayed and here's. The thing I've talked about a time and time again, over the next three or four months, usually when you get delayed as far as you're dealing with arctic air mass that usually means denied, especially for areas of the southeast when you're trying to get. True arctic air, working to get in place to sell them set up on a potential, um winter storm. So what does that look like as far as gets and temperatures compared to average? Well, we'll, look at the latest gets because the latest information.

And as we get into about mid to late week, this week, the entire eastern U.S. gets warmer than average. You see. These warmer colors, that's warmer than average temperatures, compared to average this time of the year. Um, you get a cold front it's, trying to show that cold. Front for, um, this later, this coming weekend, um, but it's, not as widespread as it was showing the runs yesterday like take it. These are the runs prior look how much cooler that is.

This is the current run, not near as cold for the eastern US as a whole, and then towards basically the end of the run. I mean, the entire eastern us just bakes. So not good news today for uh for cold weather and winter weather. But let me tell you think could change again tomorrow that's. The thing is when you get.200 hours out and further everything is inconsistent. So you know, a lot of people a lot of weather enthusiasts and even some meteorologists, you know, I can't really name a few off my head because not many people do that because they do it for a living, and they can't spread false information. But a lot of weather enthusiasts like to maybe they're, not deliberately doing it.

Possibly they're just excited. But a lot of people like the post images that probably shouldn't be posted that are 200 240 hours out. Even 300 hours out, and these models, they flip-flop so much, so I'm going to do my best to temper to kind of limit my expectations and to try to not bring what I wish. We call a wish casting in the weather world. What I wish that will happen, and I'll probably will always try to put that aside and give you what I think is going to happen based off what I see. So, thank you all for the support that's.

All I got I'll. Keep you all up I'll, get you all another update tomorrow. God, bless all you all.

  • 18-Apr-2022

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